Overview of the causes of natural rubber price volatility
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Date:2010-2-1 00:29
Natural rubber price volatility affecting the main causes can be broadly sum as follows:
1. International Natural Rubber Market supply and demand situation and the main rubber producing countries export Quotes
The international market, complete control over the supply of natural rubber in Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia the hands of a few countries. The use of natural rubber big country the United States, Japan, not the production of natural rubber, demand depends entirely on imports, its natural rubber price support are also evident. China is also the world's second largest importer of natural rubber on international Jiaojia more direct influence.
2. The international market transactions Quotes
Natural rubber has become an international commodity of a typical tropical species, the futures trading in the Far East and Southeast Asia, occupies a certain share. At present, futures trading in natural rubber are: Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM), Japan's Kobe Rubber Exchange (KOBE), Singapore RAS Commodity Exchange, Kuala Lumpur Commodity Exchange (KLCE). In which the effects of transactions in Tokyo and Singapore, the largest market share due to a larger and therefore reflects the basic dynamics of the world's rubber City Quotes.
3. The International Natural Rubber Organization (INRO) member countries signed the International Natural Rubber Agreement, the trend in rubber prices are also have a significant impact.
4. China's natural rubber production and consumption
The number of China's natural rubber production, the cost is directly related to the domestic price of rubber city. At the same time, domestic natural rubber usage changes and processing enterprises to accept the price of natural rubber ability to act on the natural rubber price levels.
5. China's imports of natural rubber policy and tax rates
The past two years, due to border trade, false feed processing and the impact of smuggling large quantities of rubber, domestic rubber market is being seriously affected, and therefore countries in the fight against smuggling at the same time, quotas on imports of natural rubber license management. Imports of natural rubber include: processing part (zero tariffs, October 1, 1999 start no quota licensing restrictions), double-limit parts (restricted flow and use, 1997-1998 year of 5% tariff adjustment in 1999 10%), and general trade segment (prior to 2000 the tariff of 25%). Processing part and the collar part of the section known as tariff reductions, customs right to these two methods to track imports of natural rubber, monitoring its use and direction, only a part of the general trade flows to enter the market and able to participate in futures markets delivery. From January 1, 2000, the state imports of natural rubber, the formal establishment of a "quota tax rate" of this project, such tax is paid in full class, countries do not restrict its flow and use of, non-tracking, you can enter the circulation market and in the futures market delivery. Which imported tobacco piece rubber RSS3 of the in-quota rates of 12% quota rate of 90% and 125%.
6. Synthetic production and application, including the upstream products Synthetic crude oil market situation
Natural Rubber and Synthetic in certain products can replace the use of each other, so when the supply of natural rubber price trend tension or high tide, Synthetic rubber consumption will rise, the market position of both the existence complementary. In addition, as Synthetic yes petrochemical products, oil prices will affect the price level Synthetic, Synthetic rubber can be transformed into changes in the price level affect the demand for natural rubber, this is also not be ignored.
7. Mainly used rubber industries, such as tires and related automotive industry
The main users of natural rubber tires, tire industry, the economy directly affect the degree of natural rubber market. Automotive industry is the use of big tires, so the development of automobile industry and the state's auto industry policy will affect the demand for tires and affect the demand for natural rubber.
8. Natural factors: seasonal changes and climate change
Glue is generally the bark of rubber trees 5-7 years after the mining was on the tilt incision, rubber trees are generally 25-30 years of collecting. Rubber trees can be taken throughout the year cut, but its production seasonal variations. Rubber trees need to grow high-temperature wet environment, the average annual temperature of 26-32. C between the average annual rainfall above 2000mm cultivated in tropical regions, so its origin is found in north and south latitude 10. C or less, mostly concentrated in Southeast Asia. As the natural rubber trees grown for years, and therefore can not be adjusted in the short term supply, changes in the market a long cycle.
9. Political factors: policy and political changes in
Policy: Governments of natural rubber production, import and export policy will affect the natural rubber price trend;
Council changes: natural rubber is an important military supplies, the occurrence of major political events are more sensitive to strong reactions even in the event of war, countries must ensure that the maximum amount of rubber should be.
10. The process of China's entry to the GATT
China's accession to WTO, tariffs on natural rubber by 2004 fell to 5% by 2006 to zero in 2005, abolition of import quotas. China's natural rubber industry will be faced with natural rubber production, a major exporter of intense competition, mainly price competition. Because China's natural rubber production costs higher than the Southeast Asian countries, obviously at a disadvantage, while domestic enterprises with plastic in order to reduce production costs, will use the relative price of low Jinkou Jiao, which use rubber enterprises, is an opportunity. Therefore, whether natural rubber production enterprise, or the use of business, into the customs of their production will bring about a greater influence, whether positive or negative, the futures market will provide them with a risk-averse, to guide the production place . In addition, China's entry to the GATT process is gradual, not overnight, so the impact of China's natural rubber market was also gradually generated.
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